https://www.iranintl.com/en/202604280611
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"Any settlement of the Iran war that leaves the Revolutionary Guards in control would preserve the Islamic Republic's core of power and risk turning a military advantage for the US and Israel into a strategic defeat.
That is the central challenge now facing Washington and its allies: how to end the conflict without giving the Islamic Republic time to absorb the blow, preserve the Revolutionary Guards’ grip on power and survive through another diplomatic compromise...."
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The Iran War Cannot End with Revolutionary Guards Still in Control
Central Argument
The author asserts that any settlement leaving the IRGC in power would preserve the Islamic Republic's core and turn a military advantage into a strategic defeat for the US and Israel. The IRGC is described as the functional nucleus of the regime that has engineered a silent coup during the conflict.
Military and Economic Situation
The Islamic Republic is currently losing 450 to 500 million dollars daily due to a US maritime blockade of Hormuz. Despite these losses and the elimination of top leaders, the regime remains capable of regional threats and domestic violence, including recent executions during the ceasefire.
The Strategy of Deception
The article warns that Tehran views negotiations as a way to buy time and absorb blows. It suggests that leaders like Ghalibaf are used as masks for diplomatic civility while the IRGC maintains actual control. The author argues that a Mikhail Gorbachev figure will not emerge from this system.
Proposed Solutions for Victory
To ensure a lasting peace, the author recommends a hybrid strategy of maximum pressure:
- Expand sanctions to include former leaders like Rouhani and Zarif.
- Seize buried uranium stockpiles before they are weaponized.
- Expand the maritime blockade into the Indo-Pacific.
- Provide Israel latitude for targeted operations against security forces.
- Support the Iranian people and Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi to topple the regime.
Final Outlook
The conflict must conclude by fundamentally weakening the regime and increasing the agency of the Iranian population. Allowing the IRGC to survive the current war through diplomatic compromise is viewed as an unacceptable risk to global and regional security.
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